There are mix mixed observations about the market as to where it is likely to head for. It makes me to feel as if we are likely to remain range bound in the coming months - but for a brief period post Q1 results provided they are better than what the industry had performed during Q1 (June 16 results). Otherwise by and large, market is not going to add (Nifty) in a big way
In so far as ruling dispensation is concerned, it has been in chair for almost half of its five years constitutionally accepted period. Despite of its persistent efforts with the erstwhile Governor, Mr Rajan to effect a interest rate cut, it has not been able to do so. In the bargain, it has cost Mr Rajan very heavily. Govt did not extend his stay as Governor thought it was in a position to do so.
Mr Urjit Patel
Though, he would try to follow the foot prints of Mr Rajan (Urjit being one time deputy to him) it seems to be an uphil task for him not to listen to the government. Govt shall again try to pressurize him to bring about rate cut to show growth in the last two years of its stay. Failing this, it( govt) shall have to confront the anti incumbency wave from the public. Should it happen, though, Mr Urjit shall try to bring down the inflation to 4 % (-) as committed by him when he took over the reins as Governor. But the main question to answer is - if he effect interest rate cut, more and more money shall make for the market which would generate inflation ; not good for the stock market.
OPEC n FED
While Fed fears are by and large over, OPEC is likely to take decision on oil in line with Russia which has decided to ensure thats there is no glut of oil in the market. We have to see as to what is in store for the stock markets, across the globe.
To sum up
My views are
Market is not likely to shiver - only range bound.
Q1 results (provided they are reasonably good) would add to the numbers of Nifty.
Generally, soon after the festival season ( Diwali & XMas) FIIs are sellers - take profit and go for holidays. There being sell - off, market loses on its charm - thus one needs to tighten the belt.
No doubt, our part selling approach has been right in place. There is nothing to worry about. But at the same time, we should not lose sight of the impending correct. Buying is advisable - there is noting like you cannot buy during the bearish phase. One can buy but he needs to be very very selective and go for deep fishing.
Go for part profit booking, apply SIP mode keep both eyes and ears open as market is never for those who invest n sleep over the stock. If we un ending greed in the market, there is likelihood of one heading for the dooms day.
Master discipline - always keep liquid cash ready and enjoy the beauty/rich rewards from the market which are always there to enjoy.
Wishing you all the best.